This is indicated in Systep’s July report, which warns of an overcontracting of energy in the short term, if an adequate projection of consumption in the electricity system is not made.
Existing generation can meet demand without building new projects for 10 years
The installed capacity in the national electricity system can currently meet energy demand without the need for new generation projects to be built for ten years, which poses a scenario of overcontracting in the local market in the short term, according to the July Systep report.
According to the consultant’s analysis, “no additional installed capacity would be needed in terms of economic supply of demand, except for the projects already under construction and those committed in the latest tenders. In other words, the existing facilities are capable of supplying the system’s demand in an economic manner, without the need to build new projects for 10 years”.
“If one considers the generation projects declared under construction on a monthly basis by the CNE, it is
notes that so far in 2018, in terms of installed capacity, these have progressively decreased. If in January 2018 an additional 2,082 MW were declared under construction with respect to what was declared in December 2017; for February this figure decreased to 1,254 MW; for March it was 410 MW, and finally in April it was 16 MW”, it was noted.
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In this scenario, Systep mentions the need to pay attention to have an adequate projection of demand, “in order to avoid over-contracting energy, which is already possible to see in the current scenario, where it is possible to see that for 2018 the contracting exceeds the projection made by 20%, even reaching 27% at its most critical point for 2022”.
The analysis indicated that although a scenario of growth in generation greater than the growth in demand is not necessarily negative, as it reduces the risk of rationing, “it is important to review its composition”, considering the increase in installed capacity of solar photovoltaic and wind power plants in recent years.
“This requires adjusting the levels of complementary services and the recognition of sufficiency power, among others. Finally, it is the duty of the authority to ensure that the tendered projects are fulfilled, as well as to ensure that the price signals given by the market reflect their real conditions, understanding that these signals are the ones that guide investments in the market”, concluded the consultant’s report.
